Second Wave of Mobilization in Russia Expected Following Voting Results

In a recent development, it is anticipated that Russia will announce a second wave of mobilization as early as September 20th. This announcement is expected to follow the tabulation of voting results. The rationale behind this second wave of mobilization is to optimize the efficiency of troops and mitigate rising discontent within the families of those initially mobilized in the first wave.

Reports from Russian activists and specialists from the Republican military registration and enlistment offices indicate preparations for this upcoming mobilization. Across regions such as Yakutia, Buryatia, the Krasnoyarsk region, and the Jewish Autonomous Region, individuals are increasingly being summoned to provide information for this purpose.

Throughout the year, the Kremlin has been taking measures to ensure compliance with military conscription. This includes tightening fines and penalties for violations of various articles of the criminal code. Additionally, a law has been enacted establishing a unified register of individuals liable for military service, along with electronic summons.

The decision to initiate a second wave of mobilization suggests that the earlier campaign to recruit contract soldiers may not have been entirely successful. Recruitment efforts for contract soldiers have been ongoing since January, with the authorities emphasizing their satisfaction with the progress. However, data from various regions indicate that recruitment has fallen short, with only up to 10 percent of the required personnel being recruited. Russians are reportedly hesitant to enter into contracts with the army due to concerns about limited options for contract termination, effectively leading to a form of indenture.

In response to these challenges, the Kremlin has resorted to enlisting foreign nationals to participate in the conflict in Ukraine, both within and outside of Russia. According to the British Ministry of Defense, Russia has been enticing migrants from Central Asia to join the military since May, offering wages of up to $4,160 USD. These individuals are being asked to sign contracts for monetary compensation, effectively legalizing a form of mercenary involvement within the Russian armed forces.

Looking ahead, the Russian State Duma may pass a bill in the coming fall that introduces criminal liability for evading conscription during mobilization. The proposed legislation, as articulated by Andrei Kurtapov, the head of the State Duma Defense Committee, would impose up to five years of imprisonment for unauthorized evasion of mobilization or failure to appear at military registration and enlistment offices.

It is clear that the Russian government is taking significant steps to address recruitment challenges and ensure the continuation of its military operations. The forthcoming second wave of mobilization will be closely watched as an indicator of the effectiveness of these measures.